Blog Archives

Risk of ‘World War’ between NATO and Russia on Ukraine as Yemen Bombed

Risk of ‘World War’ between NATO and Russia on Ukraine as Yemen Bombed

MARKET UPDATE

- Gold looks set for second consecutive week of gains
- Japan’s QE fails – Returns to zero inflation
- ‘Master of the universe’ central bank speeches today
- ETF and COMEX holdings fall as gold flows East
- JP Morgan to be part of new gold ‘fix’
- Greeks pull €8 billion from banks
- “No one knows how to solve the situation in Greece”
- Bundesbank warns debt in euro zone has entered “danger zone”
- UK and Irish house prices are falling … again

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,198.00, EUR 1,106.70 and GBP 805.32 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,209.40, EUR 1,097.26 and GBP 809.23per ounce.

Gold climbed 0.65 percent or $7.80 and closed at $1,203.40 an ounce yesterday, while silver rose 0.47 percent or $0.08 at $17.05 an ounce.

Gold in U.S. Dollars - 1 Week

In the end of day trading in Singapore, gold prices climbed 0.3 percent to $1,199.95 an ounce after reaching a high on Thursday of  $1,219.40. Gold surged  after news of the bombing in Yemen but prices were capped at the $1,220 level prior to a retracement of much of the initial gains.

Oil prices jumped over 6 percent at one stage and stock markets worldwide slumped yesterday after Saudi Arabia and allies carried out air strikes, which fueled worries internationally that global energy shipments may be put at risk. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Oil Surges, Gold and Silver Spike as Saudi Arabia Bombs Yemen

Oil Surges, Gold and Silver Spike as Saudi Arabia Bombs Yemen

- Geopolitical tensions in Middle East escalate dramatically as Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen
- Yemen’s government seized power in coup – Regarded as hostile to Saudi and ally of Iran
- Saudi attack is an escalation of Middle Eastern proxy war between Gulf States and Iran
- Action has broader geopolitical implications in deepening cold war between the West and East
- Oil surged 6% and gold 2% on the the news
- Should oil prices return to new record highs will impact struggling global economy

goldcore_chart1_26-03-15

Geopolitical tensions escalated dramatically over night as Saudi Arabia launched military operations including air strikes in Yemen. The Saudis claim the action is to counter Iran-allied forces besieging the southern city of Aden where the U.S. backed Yemeni president had taken refuge.

Oil surged and gold rose nearly 2% following a sharp drop in stocks on Wall Street globally in response to the bombing in Yemen.

Gulf broadcaster al-Arabiya TV reported that the kingdom was contributing as many as 150,000 troops and 100 war planes to the operations. Egypt, Jordan, Sudan and Pakistan were ready to take part in a ground offensive in Yemen, the broadcaster said. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global Risks To Irish Economy Being Ignored Again

Global Risks To Irish Economy Being Ignored Again

- Leading think tank forecasts strong economic growth in Ireland, ignores global risks
- Impact of Euro zone debt crisis and global geopolitical risk underestimated  
- Global macro-economic, systemic, geo-political and monetary risks largely ignored  
- Risk that lulls politicians, investors and people into false sense of security … again

Ireland’s leading economic think tank, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has issued its latest quarterly report in which it forecasts that the strong economic performance in Ireland is set to continue.

goldcore_chart1_25-03-15
It has forecast strong economic growth of 4.4% this year and a lower but still strong 3.7% next year. It says it expects unemployment in Ireland to drop below 10% this year for the first time since 2008 and as low as 8.4% next year.

The report said the economy is now growing so strongly that Ireland’s budget deficit could be virtually eliminated by next year – two years ahead of schedule.

The economy was supported by the first growth in consumer spending since the start of the recession. Consumer spending grew by 1.1 per cent last year, and the think tank forecasts this to rise to 2 per cent this year.

However, the think tank does acknowledge that it will be constrained by the still very high levels of household and mortgage debt, by people prioritising debt repayment over consumption, and by the still falling level of consumer credit from Irish banks. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

HSBC Not Closing Gold Vaults – Safety Deposit Boxes‏ Being Closed

HSBC Not Closing Gold Vaults – Safety Deposit Boxes‏ Being Closed

- Incorrect rumors abound around blogosphere that HSBC is rapidly and quietly closing gold vaults
- HSBC are in fact closing down their safety deposit box facilities in vaults in branches- Banks internationally closing boxes as not profitable and move to “cashless society”
- Incorrect speculation that HSBC move forcing gold clients to sell bullion
- Speculation understandable given poor communications from HSBC and manipulation of precious metal markets
- Salutary lesson to all – media and blogosphere – to be more rigorous
- Underlines vital importance of owning gold in allocated manner outside financial system

An incorrect rumor that HSBC is rapidly and quietly closing gold vaults where clients gold bullion was stored and gold in the GLD ETF is stored has been swirling around the internet.

Safety Deposit Boxes in Sentinel Vaults in Dublin, Ireland

After conversations with key players in the industry including a bullion dealer who used the safety deposit boxes for storage and delivery to clients, we can now confidently say that the speculation was incorrect.

What HSBC is actually doing is closing its safety deposit box facilities some of which are in vaults and strong rooms in branches. The vaults are not specialist gold vaults rather standard vaults or strong rooms which contain safety deposit boxes. These safety deposit boxes hold all sorts of valuables – from legal documents, to family heirlooms, to art works, to jewellery and of course bullion coins and bars.

Availability of safety deposit boxes is in decline in Britain and much of the world. Costs of security, insurance and opportunity to use such facilities in a more profitable manner are driving the closures. Banks in Ireland including the Bank of Ireland claim that the safety deposit boxes are “causing an unacceptable health, safety and security risk in some branches.”

While the move is understandable from a purely profit motive point of view, it must be remembered that this is a greatly needed service by many people including entrepreneurs and professionals who need to safe keep important legal documents that they are not comfortable keeping in a home or office. It is also a greatly needed service for the elderly and other people who have valuable jewelry and heirlooms that they are uncomfortable keeping in the house.

It is another case of banks blindly pursuing profit ahead of the interests of their own clients.

Banks and insolvent governments desperate for cash likely also dislike safety deposit boxes as they are means for people to protect and grow wealth and protect themselves from inflation and indeed bail-in and deposit confiscation. A percentage of box holders so store cash and bullion.

In our brave new  world of the ‘cashless society’, the financial independence and freedom that a safety deposit box confers upon the citizen is frowned upon.

As a consequence citizens are being deprived of the opportunity of having their savings, valuables and wealth stored outside of the increasingly precarious financial system and digital banking system.

The implications of the rumours were significant. Analysts speculated that a precious metals market disruption might be imminent and with it delivery calls by clients who believe they own physical gold in GLD which HSBC most likely could not meet.

Such an event would likely have a dramatic upward effect on the price of gold not to mention a catastrophic effect on the finances of those who believe they actually own physical gold in ETFs. Irish Finance Minister, Michael Noonan, being one recent buyer of the gold ETF.

The misunderstanding regarding HSBC closing its deposit box facilities had led to speculation by people familiar with the underlying dynamics of precious metals markets. HSBC was implicated in a gold price manipulation scandal last year, and has been fined numerous times in the past decade for an array of corrupt practices.

As “the largest COMEX/NYMEX depository”, according to their website, they are viewed by sceptics as having both a capacity and a track record to manipulate precious metals prices.

This view was compounded back in 2012 when respected analyst, Ned Naylor-Leyland, tracked the serial number of a gold bar that was presented on CNBC as belonging to the GLD ETF, of which HSBC is custodian.

Naylor-Leyland discovered that the bar, in fact belonged to a different ETF – ETF Securities – fuelling speculation that GLD did not have the gold it claimed to be in possession of and that gold is rehypothecated.

The recent misunderstanding regarding HSBC’s gold vaults, when viewed from this perspective, is understandable. Long time observers of the precious metals markets are aware of the price suppression actions that occur.

These include the dumping of contracts for massive volumes of gold onto the market at quiet periods – often after the close of business on the COMEX or after Asian trading and before European markets commence trading. In the absence of demand, the huge supply of paper contracts for gold overwhelms the market forcing the price down and triggering stop losses which then accelerate the sell-offs.

The sellers of these contracts are clearly not looking for the best price for their asset. The aim is to force down the price in illiquid markets. The seller can then buy back contracts for the same volume of gold at a greatly reduced price for a large profit.

The incorrect information regarding the HSBC vaults thus sparked intense speculation that some major developments were afoot in the gold market and HSBC was using the closures to force clients to sell their gold.

However, it is the case that those owning gold in HSBC’s safety deposit boxes do not have to sell their gold and most won’t. They have 60 days to find new secure storage and we are already seeing flows in this regard.

The rapidity with which this information became received wisdom is a salutary lesson for the alternative media and the gold blogosphere. Bloggers need to be rigorous in establishing facts as they will be held to a much higher standard by the mainstream media – higher, even, than the latter sometimes hold for themselves.

It also again underlines the vital importance of owning allocated and segregated gold outside the global banking system, in the safest vaults in the world.

How To Store Gold Bullion – 7 Key Must Haves


MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,193.25, EUR 1,085.56 and GBP 798.96 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,181.40, EUR 1,086.15  and GBP 791.77 per ounce.

Gold climbed 0.625 percent or $7.40 and closed at $1,190.60 an ounce yesterday, while silver surged 1.97 percent or $0.33 at $17.06 an ounce.

Gold in US Dollars - 1 Week

Gold remained firm near its two week high reached yesterday in spite of disappointing Chinese PMI figures. In Singapore, bullion for immediate delivery initially fell prior to gains and was $1,187.46 an ounce near the end of day. These gains continued in European trading.

Dollar weakness in recent days, the chance of Greece leaving the euro and the continuing crisis in the Ukraine are all supporting gold.

John Williams,  San Francisco Fed chief said in Australia yesterday that policymakers should wait no more than a

few months before considering raising U.S. interest rates from their current near-zero level. A Reuters poll of analysts show that they are expecting a U.S. interest rate hike in September now rather than June.

An Airbus operated by Lufthansa’s Germanwings budget airline crashed in southern France on this morning and all 148 on board were feared dead. French President Francois Hollande said he believed none of those on board had survived.”There were 148 people on board,” Hollande said. “The conditions of the accident, which have not yet been clarified, lead us to think there are no survivors.”
In London spot gold in late morning trading is at $1,194.96 or up 0.47 percent. Silver is $17.11 or up 0.25 percent and platinum is $1,147.96 or up 0.06 percent.

Updates and Award Winning Research Here

(more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

EU and Greece Running Out of Time – As Bank Runs Intensify, Bail-Ins Likely

EU and Greece Running Out of Time – As Bank Runs Intensify, Bail-Ins Likely

- EU and Greece running out of time as talks end “in disarray” – again
- Greece warns Merkel of ‘impossible’ debt
- Concerns Greece out of money by end of April
- Friday’s “agreement” in Brussels falls apart hours later as protagonists fail to agree on specifics
- Greece now insolvent – will run out of liquidity by end of April
- Greek banks on verge of collapse as runs continue – €1.5 billion emptied out of banks last week alone
- ‘Grexit’ could propel gold to over $2,000/oz
- Cyprus style bail-ins look increasingly possible

goldcore_bloomberg_chart2_12-03-15

Greece’s place in the Eurozone is as precarious as ever as talks between Prime Minister Tsipras and European leaders in Brussels broke down – hours after reaching general agreement – and Greece warned Germany that it will be “impossible” for Greece to service debt payments due in the coming weeks if the EU fails to provide short-term financial assistance. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gold Downside $850/oz; Upside Jump to $2,000/oz on ‘Grexit’

Gold Downside $850/oz; Upside Jump to $2,000/oz on ‘Grexit’

-Capital Economics chart-based analysis sees gold ending year higher at $1,400 per ounce
-Sees a remote possibility of gold falling to $850 per ounce
-A “Grexit” may cause gold to surge to $2,000 per ounce


goldcore_chart5_20-03-15

Julian Jessop from Capital Economics has written an interesting short piece on the company’s expectation for gold prices. It analyses golds performance, in four charts, against the US dollar, US treasury yields and expectations by investors for a Eurozone break-up.

Capital Economics

The first chart shows the inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar trade weighted index. As the dollar began its decline in mid-2010 it had a very close inverted relationship with gold. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gold Surges – Fed Loses “Patience” and Signals Loose Monetary Policies to Continue

Gold Surges – Fed Loses “Patience” and Signals Loose Monetary Policies to Continue

- Gold rose over 2% – Fed signals ultra loose monetary policies to continue
- Fed dampens expectation of a rate hike in June
- Yellen no longer “patient” – notes weakness in recent US economic data
- Fed knows that fragile, debt laden U.S. economy cannot handle higher rates
- Despite recent dollar strength, dollar vulnerable in long term
- Sole reserve currency status threatened in currency wars

Gold rose sharply following yesterday’s Fed announcement in which it was indicated that the Fed are unlikely to raise rates in June – although the possibility was not ruled out – due to the poorer economic data that has been emerging this year.

‘Helicopter Janet’

(more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gold Price to Double to Over $2,400 Per Ounce – Demand in Asia to Double in “Asian Century”

Gold Price to Double to Over $2,400 Per Ounce – Demand in Asia to Double in “Asian Century”

- Gold price set to soar to new records in ‘Asian century’
- Gold price to double by 2030: ANZ
- Gold to exceed $2,400 per ounce
- Gold demand in Asia set to double
- “Greater demand from investors and central banks will see gold prices rise materially over the long-term”
- “Most of the time you don’t want to pay for it. But if you need it, you’re glad you have it”

The price of gold is forecast to double in the next 15 years, and growing wealth across Asia, particularly in China and India, will lead to demand for gold bullion and send its value soaring, a new study from ANZ predicts.

Gold in US Dollars - 5 Years (GoldCore)

 ANZ’s just released report `East to El Dorado: Asia and the Future of Gold’ says the price of gold could exceed $2,400 per ounce by 2030, more than double its current value of around $1,150. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Irish Finance Minister Dumps Stocks to Buy Gold

Irish Finance Minister Dumps Stocks to Buy Gold

- Ireland’s Minister of Finance shifted personal wealth out of stocks and into gold

- Minister invested in SPDR Gold Shares ETF, Portuguese government bonds and other ETFs

- Maintained holdings in bank and agricultural commodities ETFs

- Gold ETF not a safe haven asset – much unappreciated counterparty risk

The Minister for Finance in Ireland, Michael Noonan, sold his shares in funds that track European and US stocks and diversified his portfolio including allocating some of his personal wealth into a gold exchange traded fund (ETF) in 2014.

Sunday Independent

(more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gold Up 11 Per Cent In Euros This Year As Currency Wars Deepen

Gold Up 11 Per Cent In Euros This Year As Currency Wars Deepen

- Gold has risen 11% versus the euro in 2015
- Builds on 12% gains against the euro in 2014
- Sentiment poor despite reasonable performance
- Gold performing well considering significant gains in stocks and dollar
- Dollar centric view misleading
- Currency wars intensifying
- Complacency and hubris rife

Gold rose 12% against the euro in 2014 and so far in 2015, gold has risen a further 11% versus the euro. The euro has fallen 23% against gold since January 2014. Gold has risen from EUR 880 per ounce in January 2014 to EUR 1,090 per ounce today.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart6_13-03-15

The dollar-centric nature of most financial media and the tendency to focus on gold solely in dollars would give one the impression that gold has been devastated this year. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Deutsche & Santander Fail ‘Stress Tests’ – Risk of Bail-Ins

Deutsche & Santander Fail ‘Stress Tests’ – Risk of Bail-Ins

 

- Largest banks in Germany and Spain fail Federal Reserve’s ‘stress tests’
- Stress tests designed to assess whether lenders can withstand another financial crisis
- U.S. subsidiaries fail Fed stress tests on ‘‘widespread and critical deficiencies’’ in identifying risks
- Deutsche and Santander bank fail on “qualitative” grounds
- 28 out of 31 banks passed the stress test, with BoA required to resubmit plans
- Both Deutsche and Santander passed questionable ECB stress tests in October
- Developing bail-in regime poses risks to depositors

The Federal Reserve has issued a stinging rebuke to two of Europe’s largest banks – Deutsche Bank and Santander.

U.S. operations of Deutsche, Germany’s largest bank, and Santander, the biggest bank in Spain and a large player in the UK market, were found to have serious deficiencies in capital planning and risk management, according to a senior Federal Reserve official.

Key Bail-In Considerations

The systems by which European banks assess risk have been called into question following the failure of the U.S. subsidiaries of the two major European banks to meet criteria set out in the Federal Reserve’s stress tests.

The subsidiaries of both Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander failed the stress tests for “qualitative” reasons among which were their inability to accurately identify risk and to respond realistically to losses. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Apple Gold Demand – Bloomberg View Misrepresents GoldCore

Apple Gold Demand – Bloomberg View Misrepresents GoldCore 

- Bloomberg View’s Mark Gilbert misrepresents our widely read Apple gold demand
- CNBC quoted extensively and favourably from our market update
- Gilbert quoted selectively from our piece to misrepresent “gold bugs”
- Silly gold ‘bug’ name calling shows bias against gold and towards stocks
- “Gold bugs” and “stock roaches” can peacefully coexist
- In these uncertain times diversification is what remains vitally important

In his column on Monday, Bloomberg columnist Mark Gilbert made reference to our Market Update released last Friday – Apple Major New Gold Buyer – Propel Gold Higher?. Our piece was very widely read – Apple being the sexy tech and investment story of today. It was picked up very widely including being quoted from favorably and extensively by CNBC.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_11-03-15

Gilberts article, Apple Watch Won’t Rescue Gold Bugs’, describes our analysis as “breathless”. It suggests to us that he may have not read our entire piece and the many qualifications and caveats in the piece. If he had read the entire piece and the important context and substantive points made, it is unlikely that he would have described it with such negative bias. (more…)

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,