Which appears more likely–a straight-line extension of the past two years’ rise in stocks, or another “impossible” decline to complete the megaphone pattern?
There are dozens of charts and data points supporting the case for a continuation of the Bull market in stocks or a reversal into a Bear market. For the sake of brevity I’ve distilled the two arguments into two charts, one for the Bull case and one for the Bear case.
The Bull case is easy: the economy has reached self-sustaining expansion, a.k.a. escape velocity; hotel occupancy rates are high, home valuations are rising, stocks are fairly valued based on forward earnings, debt has been paid down/written off, and the Fed has tapered its quantitative easing (QE) bond and mortgage buying with no ill effect.
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Tagged with: Bear market
, Bull market
, confirmation bias
, escape velocity
, Federal Reserve
, recency bias
, reverse repos
, self-sustaining growth
, stock market
Stacy Summary: Just had Liam Halligan into the studio for the next Keiser Report (airing in a few hours); we went deeper into the conversation on his latest piece below, ...
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OK, let’s forgive Goldman for flip-flopping. At the peak of the bubble, trigger fingers are nervous, and flip-flopping is the norm. A week earlier, a Goldman strategist, in a very bullish mood at the time, raised his year-end target for the S&P 500 to 2,050. But that’s like so last week. Now Goldman’s strategy folks downgraded global stocks. And they gave a peculiar reason.
Read…… How Bad Can The Junk-Bond Sell-Off Get? So Bad It’ll Take Down Stocks
Ukraine. Iraq. Nigeria. Libya. Tunisia. Syria. All are hotspots of conflict in different regions of the world, yet the same underlying cause behind each can clearly be seen when looking through the lens of finite resources.
In the end, all wars are resource wars.
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Warning! Future Lies, Ahead
If you like your future you can keep your future. Bitcoin is headed to infinity and beyond New York or at least to the end of a 45 day comment period. When it comes to the past (pre-existing political theory), we always have the blockchain for that.
A double header discussing the ‘dumb money’ piling into markets just as the Spectator’s cover story reads: “The Next Crash: We could be on the brink of another financial crisis.” We read through the piece in shock at the obvious signs of misallocation of wealth while chasing dumb bubbles – including a P/E ratio now at 25.6 compared to a historic norm of 16.5. In the second half, we examine more misallocation of wealth as the US spends an additional $1 trillion annually on healthcare compared to if they spent the same percentage of GDP as the next most expensive country, the Netherlands. While overspending by $1 trillion, the energy grid has the most blackouts of any developed nation and yet less than half a trillion could replace the dumb, old grid with a smart, new one.
Money plays an incredibly large role in the world, but yet it remains poorly understood. What exactly is it? What do the pieces of paper we hold in our wallets and bank accounts actually represent?
Developing an understanding of the underlying role of money allows us to better see when it is being used properly, or abused. And history shows that abuse is more the norm than the exception: the record shows over 3,800 previous examples of paper currencies that no longer exist.
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Sponsored by Mining Maven. Jan Skoyles presents a Get REAL special on silver. She talks to Mark O’Byrne of Goldcore.com about how the industrial and precious metal will do.