IMF Scraps Forecast for Global-Growth Pickup on Brexit Fallout

Following on from the Brexit vote last month the IMF have decided to re-evaluate their forecast for global growth.

Bloomberg  reports that they have revised their original 3.2% forecast down to 3.1% for 2016 and from 3.5% to 3.4% for 2017. While these feel like very modest revisions ,the IMF would not be known for radical changes of direction preferring slow and steady revisions.

Their new forecast is based on the assumption that British and EU officials reach new trade agreements that avoid a “large increase in economic barriers.” However, if talks break down, Britain will slip into recession as more financial institutions relocate to the euro area and consumption and investment contract more than expected, the fund said. In a “severe” scenario, global growth is seen sliding to 2.8 percent this year and next.

You can read the full article here 


[KR942] Keiser Report: Crisis of Capitalism

We talk to Dmitry Orlov, author of The Collapse Gap, about a “pathway to a different future.” Orlov suggests that “150 strong” can solve many of the problems present in our economies and societies – smaller communities of 150 who can trust each other and work together as a unit during the crisis of capitalism. We also discuss the drumbeat of war and how war is not the answer to the global economic depression.


America is Being Divided and Conquered Into Oblivion

Or take the right to vote. In principle, it is a great privilege. In practice, as recent history has repeatedly shown, the right to vote, by itself, is no guarantee of liberty. Therefore, if you wish to avoid dictatorship by referendum, break up modern society’s merely functional collectives into self-governing, voluntarily co-operating groups, capable of functioning outside the bureaucratic systems of Big Business and Big Government.

-Aldous Huxley, in Brave New World Revisited (1958) 

It’s been eight years since the financial crisis and look at our choices for President. An ego-maniac with authoritarian tendencies and zero respect for civil liberties/the Constitution and a neocon, war criminal, Wall Street-owned corporatist in liberal sheep’s clothing. Unfortunately, this is how far we’ve progressed politically in the near decade since the status quo bailed out the privileged and crushed everyone else.

So what does this mean? It means we are in for a very real struggle in the near-term. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are unabashed authoritarians who worship at the altar of state power and centralization. If I’m right and the real battle of our time is between decentralization/liberty and centralization/authoritarianism, neither one of these candidates offer anything for us in the freedom camp. Unless some sort of miracle occurs, the next President will be someone who strongly believes in the centralization of power and will push with all of his or her might to further aggregate power in the office of the executive and in themselves. The negative macro trends will continue.

Read the rest here.

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Analysis: Should You Get a Bitcoin IRA?

Edmund Moy

Imagine turning your retirement nest egg to Bitcoin. By adding a Bitcoin IRA to their investment portfolio, that’s what many people are doing, literally. The rise of Bitcoin to its current price of $668, sitting at close to 2016 highs, had many people taking a serious look at the popular digital currency. But is this the right move for you?

A Bitcoin IRA is a type of IRA that allows the investor to own Bitcoin, instead of paper-based assets such as cash, stocks and bonds. It is similar to the Gold IRA that was created by Congress in 1997, says Edmund C. Moy, chief strategist for Bitcoin IRA and former United States Mint director, who oversaw the largest production of gold and silver coins in the world.

Bitcoin IRA

To qualify as Bitcoin that can be held in an IRA, certain criteria are required. “The Bitcoin must be held by the IRA trustee instead of the IRA owner. The Bitcoin must be stored in an IRS-approved depository,” says Moy. Mainstream investors don’t want to actually store Bitcoin themselves, as security is quite complex.

“All other rules about IRA contributions, disbursements and taxes apply,” Moy adds. Read more ›

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Central Bankers Losing Ability to Manipulate Gold and Silver With Derivatives

The Fed/bullion banks have been throwing a record amount of paper at the Comex, especially in relation to the declining amount of physical metal reported to be available for delivery into that paper. And yet, they can’t push the price of gold and silver despite incessantly repeated and aggressive attempts since late February.
There is a massive move higher coming in the entire precious metals sectors between now and the end of the year.
It took longer than any of us thought it could but here we are:

Click Here For Fund Manager Dave Kranzler On Central Bankers Losing Control of Gold and Silver:


The Missing ’28 Pages’ of the 9/11 Report Released into Blitzkrieg of World Events

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We have been massive and outspoken proponents that 9/11 was an inside job since our inception in 2010.  Five or more years ago that was a fairly extreme stance.  We’d often get people calling us “crazy,” but I’m used to it. Read more ›


Gold Holds Near Two-Week Low as Risk Appetite Rises on U.S. Data

Gold has consolidated near the low of the past two weeks following on from its Brexit rally.

Having increased by 25% since the beginning of the year the pause in its rally comes as Barnabas Gan, an economist at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp observes that “Market risk-on sentiment seems to have gone back” on the table, as reported by Bloomberg today.

Recent positive economic data out of the U.S. including positive retails sales, consumer prices and employment statistics have lured investors back in to the equity markets and trimmed the rally in gold. However, this recent positive economic news needs to be viewed against the backdrop of it being an election year in the U.S. and the desire of the White House to create a connection between positive economic sentiment and the democratic administration.

You can read the full article here 


The 28-Pages Are Way Worse Than I Thought

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Shortly after the release of the infamous 28-pages earlier today, the White House issued a statement dismissing allegations of Saudi involvement in the attacks of 9/11. I believe such assurances are intended to prevent people from reading it in the first place, because if you actually read them, your mouth will be wide open the entire time in disbelief.

There are only two conclusions any thinking person can come to after reading the 28-pages.

1. Elements within the Saudi government ran the operations behind the 9/11 attack.

2. The U.S. government covered it up.

But don’t take my word for it…

Read more here.

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A Self Directed Investment In Your 401K or IRA, Just Like Gold

Bitcoin and Brexit

On June 24, 2016, immediately after the final Brexit vote was publicized, the pound sterling plunged to its lowest level since 1985; conversely, the US dollar and the Japanese yen rose to new levels.

It’s telling, though, that the price of bitcoin actually rose 6.5% in the 24 hours after the results of the Brexit referendum became publicized. Bitcoin had already been up 25% prior to the vote for reasons not directly related to Brexit.

Clearly, those who jumped in to bitcoin to drive up the price were looking for an alternative to conventional currency during a time of political unrest. It makes sense that companies are now offering the ability to purchase bitcoin with your 401K and IRA funds.

In that role, bitcoin performs much like gold – an uncorrelated asset to which traders flock during times of geopolitical uncertainty. According to Coinbase data, the Brexit movement had a positive impact on bitcoin prices even before the referendum. In the week just before the vote, Coinbase, which offers a well-known bitcoin wallet and a bitcoin exchange, encountered a 55% increase in new account applications and a 350% increase in bitcoin purchases from the UK.

On the day of the referendum, the anticipation of Brexit affected bitcoin purchases before the actual vote, and Coinbase saw an 86% increase in UK signups. One Coinbase official observed a similar reaction with bitcoin when it served as an effective safe haven against the debt morass in Greece, and the capital regulations in China.

Founded in 2012, Coinbase now has 4 million users and operates in 32 countries. It launched in the UK only a year ago, and is making it possible for Brits to buy bitcoin in pounds, euros, or dollars.

Bitcoin and China

China is attempting to outdo the West in bitcoin activity by making large investments in server farms and carrying on immense speculative trading on Chinese bitcoin exchanges. In fact, Chinese exchanges account for 42% of all bitcoin transactions in 2016, according to a Chainalysis report commissioned by The New York Times.

Just last week, the giant Chinese internet company, Baidu, along with three Chinese banks invested in the popular American Bitcoin company Circle.

Again, we would like to emphasize the effectiveness of a combined bitcoin/gold investment. Gold, of course, is a traditional risk-off safe haven for investors and traders looking to protect their wealth against the uncertainty of paper assets. Bitcoin, on the other hand, presents an excellent speculative opportunity for an investor looking for aggressive upside return. The combined bitcoin/gold strategy can be especially effective since the digital currency and the yellow metal are both non-correlated assets. They can also be held in your self directed IRA or 401K.

The current market cap of all bitcoins is now $10.7 billion.

Discover how bitcoin can diversify your portfolio by contacting a Bitcoin IRA specialist.


US Mint Ends Silver Eagle Allocation

The Silver Eagle coin shortage is officially over. 

Click Here For Official US Mint Announcement and Full Coverage:


We’ve Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty

That we have entered an era of rising instability and uncertainty is self-evident.There will always be areas of instability in any era, but instability and uncertainty are now the norm globally.

There is a template for global instability, one that has been repeated throughout history. Historian David Hackett Fischer described the dynamics that generate periods of rising instability in his book The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History (sent to me a number of years ago by correspondent Cheryl A.)

In Fischer’s well-documented view, there is a grand cycle of prices and wages which turn on the simple but profound law of supply and demand; all else is detail.

As a people prosper and multiply, the demand for goods like food and energy outstrips supply, causing eras of rising prices. Long periods of stable prices (supply increases along with demand) beget rising wages and widespread prosperity. Once population and financial demand outstrip supply of food and energy–a situation often triggered by a series of catastrophically poor harvests–then the stability decays into instability as shortages develop and prices spike.

These junctures of great poverty, insecurity and unrest set the stage for wars, revolutions and pandemics.

It is remarkable that the very conditions so troubling us now were also present in the price rises of the 13th, 16th and 18th centuries. Unfortunately, those cycles did not have Disney endings: the turmoil of the 13th century brought war and a series of plagues which killed 40% of Europe’s population; the 16th century’s era of rising prices tilled fertile ground for war, and the 18th century’s violent revolutions and resultant wars can be traced directly to the unrest caused by spiking prices.

(The very day that prices for bread reached their peak in Paris, an angry mob tore down the Bastille prison, launching the French Revolution.)

After a gloriously long run of stable prices in the 19th century–prices were essentially unchanged in Britain between 1820 and 1900–The 20th century was one of steadily increasing prices. Fischer takes great pains to demolish the ideologically appealing notion that all inflation is monetary; the supply of money (gold and silver) rose spectacularly in the 19th century but prices barely budged. In a similar fashion, eras of rising prices have seen stable money supplies.

Monetary inflation can lead to hyper-inflation, of course, but there are always mitigating factors in those circumstances. The long wave is not one of hyper-inflation but of supply and demand imbalances undoing the social order.

Americans are inherently suspicious of anything which seems to threaten constraint of the American Dream; thus it is not surprising that cycles of history are largely unknown in the U.S. As Fischer explains:

This collective amnesia is partly the consequence of an attitude widely shared among decision-makers in America, that history is more or less irrelevant to the urgent problems before them.

Fischer notes that he describes not cycles but waves, which are more variable and less predictable. (Surfers know to count waves, as they tend to arrive in sets.)

In response to this great rise in prices of essentials, both commoners and governments debased the currency. In their day, this meant shaving the edges of coins, or debasing new coins with non-precious metals. The debasement was an attempt to increase money to counteract the rise in prices, but it failed (of course). Every few decades, a new undebased coinage was released, and then the cycle of debasement began anew.

Just as insidiously, wages fell:

But as inflation continued in the mid-13th century, money wages began to lag behind. By the late 13th and early 14th centuries real wages were dropping at a rapid rate.

This growing gap between returns to labor and capital was typical of price-revolutions in modern history. So also was its social result: a rapid growth of inequality that appeared in the late stages of every long inflation.

And what happened to government expenditures? It’s deja vu all over again–deficits:

Yet another set of cultural responses to inflation created disparities of a different kind: fiscal imbalances between public income and expenditures. Governments fell deep into debt during the middle and later years of the 13th century.

Oh, and crime and illegitimacy also rose. Fischer summarizes the end-game of the price-rise wave thusly:

In the late 13th century, the medieval price-revolution entered another stage, marked by growing instability. Prices rose and fell in wild swings of increasing amplitude. Inequality increased at a rapid rate. Public deficits surged ever higher. The economy of Western Europe became dangerously vulnerable to stresses it might have managed more easily in other eras.

And there you have our future, visible in the 13th, 16th and 18th century price-revolution waves which preceded ours. It is hubris in the extreme to think we have somehow morphed into some new kind of humanity far different from those people who tore down the Bastille in a great frustrated rage at prices for energy and bread they could no longer afford.

It is foolish to blame “speculators” for the rise in food and energy, when the human population has doubled in 40 years and the consumption of energy and food has exploded as a result.

So where does this leave us? Based on the history so painstakingly assembled by Fischer, we can anticipate:

 

  • Ever higher prices for what I call the FEW Essentials: food, energy and water.
  • Ever larger government deficits which end in bankruptcy/repudiation of debts/new issue of currency.
  • Rising property/violent crime and illegitimacy.
  • Rising interest rates (currently considered “impossible”).
  • Rising income inequality in favor of capital over labor.
  • Continued debasement of the currency.
  • Rising volatility of prices.
  • Rising political unrest and turmoil (see “Revolution”).

 

With this in hand, we can practically write the headlines for 2017-2025 in advance.

 Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition) For more, please visit the book’s website.

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More War-War by Sketchaganda

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