Past & Future Speculative Bubbles – What They Indicate for Gold and Silver’s Coming Speculative Mania!

bubbles

Bubbles start slowly and then accelerate to unsustainable highs (on large volume) that are largely created by greed and fear but not fundamental evaluations. Bubbles generally follow the “Pareto Principle” where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time.
Assuming the 80/20 “rule” and the phase 2 price change ratio of approximately 5, what could happen if gold and silver rise into another speculative bubble?

Silver began its uptrend in November 2001 at $4.01 and gold began its move in April 2001 at $255. Silver rallied to nearly $50 in 2011, and gold also rallied to a new high of about $1,900 in 2011. Assume that both surpass those highs about mid-2013 and accelerate into phase 2 thereafter. Using these assumptions, phase 1 for silver would measure 12.5 years and phase 2 could last until approximately late 2016 – early 2017. If we assume that phase 1 was a move from $4 to $50 and that represents 19% of the total move, the high could be around $250. The ratio of phase 2 ending price to beginning price would be 5:1 – reasonable.

Indications for gold suggest a similar end date and a phase 2 bubble price of perhaps $9,000 per ounce. The ratio of phase 2 ending price to beginning price would be 4.7:1 at $9,000.
Click here for more:

2 comments on “Past & Future Speculative Bubbles – What They Indicate for Gold and Silver’s Coming Speculative Mania!
  1. R. Freiherr v. Wackendonk says:

    Nine thousand what-kind-of-dollars? ‘Cause its all relative, y’know: 2012$9,000 = 2011$8,866 = 2010$8,725 = 2009$8,666 = 2008$8,595 = 2007$8,508 = 2006$8,478 = 2005$8,416 = 2004$8,395 = 2003$8,353 = 2002$8,310 = 2001$8,286 = 2000$8,244 and so on and so forth.

    Gold’ll hit $9,000 AT SOME POINT owing to QE I forecast gold at $400 billion per ounce, and bread ought to be about $100,000,000 a loaf at the same time, give or take.

  2. mijj says:

    as the storm intensifies and the ship comes apart at the seams and takes on water, interest in the lifeboats climbs.

    Ps. .. aren’t bubbles related to price *and* trade volume, and not merely price alone?

Access The Max Keiser Podcast
Weekly Downloads, live Q & A Session and exclusive video posts from Max and Stacy

Subscribe Learn More
Buy Gold Online
Buy Gold Online
Watch the latest Keiser Reports:

Watch our Google Hangouts: