We discuss how it is that Gordon Brown’s Bottom turned into an audit the gold movement in Germany. They also discuss the mother of all bond bubbles getting set to burst and all that will be left in the Bank of England ‘gold’ vaults are a big pile of gilts. In the second half of the show, Max Keiser talks to Dominic Frisby, author of Life After the State, about Germany’s gold quest, the future of relations between the US and Germany if the gold is not there and about ‘life after the state.’
The biggest challenge of the BullionBars database is knowing what questions to ask of the data warehouse; at any given time there are a number of research streams in progress – but these do take time to build and mature. The biggest advantage (of having a huge chunk of data there) is the ability to run very quick random checks on anything bar-related. Today, Screwtape Files bolsters support for a particular story. Brought to my attention by Bron Suchecki this morning was a Max Keiser interview where guest Dominic Frisby makes a comment regarding Chinese gold bars (ref 20:30-21:15):
Dominic Frisby, Author/Writer
(edited for clarity) “… I had dinner about a year or two ago with the head of Gold at HSBC and one of the things that he described — and most of the world’s gold goes through HSBC, at some stage — looking at the gold in his vault … despite the fact that China is the biggest producer – he never sees bars, with Chinese stamps on them …”
THIS OBSERVATION IS SUPPORTED BY THE DATA WE HAVE ON RECORD.
In the database I found ZERO matches for Chinese-manufactured gold bars in the GLD records, and also extended the query to see if other vaults had any. I was mildly surprised to find NONE … surprising because our current gold sample size includes data from not just HSBC London vault, but also Royal Canadian Mint and Via Mat (London, Hong Kong and Zurich). Worth mentioning that although our database is large, there are still some data sets we have not yet loaded (like the Julius Baer Precious Metals Fund data, for example) so the conclusion is not yet complete. If I do find some Chinese-Manufactured Gold Bars in subsequent data records I will update this post, but since GLD is the grand-daddy of all ETF’s I expect the ‘zero’ result will likely extend to all other result sets. At time of writing, the current size of the WAREHOUSE_GOLD table is 34 million rows (also note our data does not comprehensively account for the entire vault contents – we are only able to reference what is provided in the bar lists we download).
So my test result currently confirms the statement from the interview – namely that the HSBC vault contains no Chinese gold bars. This seems to directly support the idea that China may be keeping the lion’s share of gold output from their refineries, and is also consistent with FOFOA’s ideas about China and Gold. Interesting – I had never noticed the absence of Chinese gold bars.